China Environmental Law

The figure used most frequently for the 2005 energy consumption per RMB10,000 of GDP number is approximately 1.22 tce.  For instance the National Bureau of Statistics reported that:

The energy consumption by 10,000 yuan of GDP amounted to 1.206 tons of coal equivalent in 2006, down by 1.33 percent as compared with that in 2005.

This would place the 2005 figure in the 1.22 tce range. However, other, more contemporaneous press reports peg the 2005 number approximately 17% higher:

Official statistics show that the total volume of energy consumption in China last year [2005] was equal to 2.22 billion tons of standard coal, up 9.5 percent over that in 2004 and lower than the 9.9-percent economic growth rate. Energy consumption per 10,000 yuan (1,250 U.S. dollars) of GDP was equivalent to 1.43 tons of standard coal, roughly the same level as that in 2004.

It’s possible the 2005 number reported in the immediately preceding quote was revised based on a fine-tuning of the 2005 actual data (although the difference is a bit more than would usually be characterized as “fine”), but I have not found any report of that. It doesn’t make sense that the government would want to low ball the baseline, as that simply makes the goal harder to achieve. Does anyone have any ideas on this one?  In the absence of any additional information, I’ll use the 1.22 tce as the 2005 number.

Care must be taken when reading Chinese news reports that deal with these numbers; they are frequently inaccurately reported.  For instance in an article entitled “China sets agenda to curb pollution for green Olympics“  we are told:

China is aiming to cut its air and water pollution by at least 5 percent in 2008 comparing with 2005 figures to ensure a green Olympics, said Zhou Shengxian, head of the country’s environmental watchdog. Zhou said Tuesday on a work conference of the State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA) that the country plans to cut its sulfur dioxide and chemical oxygen demand (COD), two major pollutants emissions in China, by 6 and 5 percent respectively in 2008 from 2005 levels. The plan means the country will cut up to 2.3 million tons of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions and 1.3 million tons of chemical oxygen demand (COD) this year.

No it doesn’t. A 6% reduction in SO2 (from 2005 levels) would total 1.52 million tons and a 5% reduction in COD (from 2005 levels) would total 707,000 thousand tons. When you read the article it appears the harried reporter simply added up the projected reductions from a number of specific plans to arrive at his totals, but the reporting, nevertheless, is wrong and the absolute reductions stated in the article are patently unachievable. I suppose, however, some hyperbole is permitted in the service of a “green” Olympics.