It appears that energy efficiency improvements during the first part of 2008 fell short of the expectations. Several articles have referenced disappointing results for “the first four months of 2008″ and the “first half of 2008.” I have not, however, been able to find the actual figures yet.
As you will recall China’s goal is to improve energy efficiency 20% over 2005 levels by 2010 (which results in annualized efficiency improvements of 4%). The results for 2006 and 2007 did not meet the annualized goals (see precise figures here). The poor results so far this year are not really surprising given China’s current power supply and demand situation. As we’ve reported, China is experiencing a power supply crunch. I suspect that many previously shuttered small (and inefficient) power generation units have been pressed back into service to meet increased demand (although lack of coal seems to be the primary cause of the supply shortfall). Moreover, demand continued to be driven by high power consumption (and usually less efficient) industries (see here).
This situation is extremely instructive and should be closely studied by anyone who is inclined to get too giddy about China’s efforts to “green” up. It would be hard to find a “green” goal in China with more political, policy, and legal support than the drive for increased energy efficiency. However, even with that support, China has failed so far to meet its goals. In a hybrid economy, there are too many cross-currents which can not always be spotted by the central planners. Therefore, do not assume that just because the captain has set the course, that the ship will actually arrive in one piece at its destination.
3 responses so far ↓
1 Crossroads // Aug 2, 2008 at 4:38 pm
I’ll kick off the comments by saying that I see opportunities on the horizon. There are quick and easy solutions here that could have immediate impact, not huge reversing the trend stuff, but simply through regulation ( and enforcement) f building codes, basic education (if you close your window when the A/C is on you save money), subsidies of solar water heaters, CFL/ LED giveaways… the simple stuff.
Jamestown has a big piece about the changes of cadres around the country that have come as part of Beijing’s drive to create a sophisticated (controllable) groups of cadres who will through good practices reduce civil outbursts… and long term, that will also have an impact on Beijing’s ability to drive energy policy as well.
R
2 Rob // Aug 4, 2008 at 10:24 am
It’s funny how in the CD articles, they refer to the first 4 months of 2008 as though they are discussed in the same report as the 2007 stats…
3 cmcelwee // Aug 4, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Rob: I thought that was funny as well, and at first assumed the initial reference to 2008 was in error, but then I found some other articles that reporeted the same thing for 2008 but changed the time frame slightly. Having said that, there does seem to be a lot of recycled enevironmental news coming out lately.
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