China Environmental Law

Yet another group has concluded that it is possible for China to transition to low carbon development model in a manner that “offers the green opportunity for Chinese economy to recover and boom again by investing in a low carbon future.”

The UK’s Tyndall and researchers from the University of Sussex Centre issued a report yesterday entitled China’s Energy Transition: Pathways for Low Carbon Development.  The report examines four scenarios which assign China carbon limits of either 70 or 111 gigatonnes of carbon for the 21^st century pursuant to global scenarios that fix a worldwide total century budget of 490GtC.  ”This is the emission budget suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that is needed to stabilise CO2′ concentrations at 450ppm.”

With the employment of a number of existing and promising technologies, China will be able to meet these assigned limits with emissions peaking between 2020 and 2030 and declining thereafter.  The catch: China must begin the transition to a low carbon economy now, or the costs of the necessary changes significantly increase, and the chances of operating within budgeted targets significantly decrease. 

The need to get quickly off the starting blocks was also emphasized in the McKinsey China’s Green Revolution report we previously featured. 

It is this requirement that stokes the pessimist in me.  For those of us who have been engaged with China’s environmental regulatory and policy regime over the years, the one thing that can be said with certainty is China does not move expeditiously on these matters.  Spotty advances will be made here and there -new solar incentives, renewed energy efficiency pushes, etc.-but a coordinated, economy wide low carbon make over just doesn’t seem in the cards any time soon.  I certainly hope I’m wrong.