China Environmental Law

Where does  last week’s flurry of climate change discussions between China and the US leave us?

By the end of the week, Kerry was sounding upbeat.  As the Guardian reported he said “he was hopeful that an agreement can be reached after what he described as the ‘most constructive and productive’ talks he has had with China over climate change in 20 years.”  He pronounced himself “very optimistic” about achieving a “successful outcome in Copenhagen.” 

He quoted first vice-premier Li Keqiang as saying “Let’s do it” with regard to bilateral cooperation in the field.

As to what Li Keqiang agreed to “do” I think the reference here is probably to the joint US-China Energy Initiatives that have been developed by the US-China Clean Energy Forum.  This is good news, but the Initiatives (I’ll have more on the Forum and Initiatives in a subsequent post) do not lead to quantifiable carbon reduction outcomes.

Congressman Markey was cautiously optimistic.  As reported by the New York Times (NYT), he

acknowledged that without significant concessions from China, Congress might be disinclined to act on its own package of emissions limits.

But after years of American intransigence on global warming, Mr. Markey said he thought China would be influenced by the Obama administration’s commitment to the issue. “We leave here with some sense that we can reach an agreement,” he said.

In the transcript of the concluding press conference, Markey states:

We realize that China is not Germany and not the United States. We believe however, that there is a significant role for the Chinese to play and ultimately, any treaty which is finally agreed to will have to reflect that reality.

Congressman Inslee from Seattle also emphasized that China now had a significant role to play.  He is quoted in the transcript as saying:

We now know that China is playing in the major leagues. When they were in Kyoto, they were in the minor leagues economically. But now that China has experienced the most rapid growth of any economic engine — perhaps in human history — they’re fully capable of joining the rest of the world as a new star in the constellation and it is out job to help China to have the confidence to realize they no longer are in league with Uganda, they are unique to China. And we were looking forward and we are going to work with our friends in China to find that unique mix of their contribution that can continue the tremendous progress they have made and indeed they have made progress and we intend to get a deal so that gets written in stone.  So, we leave here with some sense that we can reach an agreement.

Speaker Pelosi noted that she was “hopeful that we can reach a U.S.-China agreement but much more needs to be done.”

Congressman Sensenbrenner, the ranking Republican on the House Select Committee for Energy Independence and Global Warming (and no friend of the Waxman-Markey bill) was most pessimistic.  According to the NYT

he was discouraged by the Chinese refusal to commit to greater cuts in greenhouse gases while insisting that developed nations do more to reduce their emissions.

“It’s business as usual for China,” said Mr. Sensenbrenner, the ranking Republican on the House Select Committee for Energy Independence and Global Warming. “The message that I received was that China was going to do it their way regardless of what the rest of the world negotiates in Copenhagen.”

Where does this leave us? It would appear that there remain siginificant issues between China and the US on the contents of a deal at Copenhagen.  The US side has the impression it is starting to lead again, but is becoming a little concerned that China isn’t following, will insist on tacking its own path, or won’t allow its actions to be verified.  China believes the US response to date has been tepid, and sees little progress on other key issue like technology transfers and cash payments.

There are reasons for optimism, however.  Veteran China Blogger (and astute analyst) Julian Wong has co-authored a report with his new colleagues at the Center for American Progress (CAP), “Counting the Real Progress on Climate Action“, that presents a relatively positive assessment of the chances for agreement at Copenhagen (and introduces the concept of “carbon cap equivalents,” an innovative way of accounting of for a country’s climate progress).  Let’s hope this is the case.

The one certainty, in the words of the CAP report, is that “[t]he coming summer of climate negotiations is already looking long and hot.” Things are already starting to simmer at Bonn, “China warns rich nations: “unfair” demands threaten U.N. deal.” As Congressman Markey said, “This is going to be on one of the most complex diplomatic negotiations in the history of the world.”